What direction for Afghanistan? - By Tim Foxley (EFSAS Research Fellow)
In the case of Afghanistan, it seems as if all successful scenarios require four things – continued international support, genuine Taliban willingness to compromise, major reductions in violence (ideally a ceasefire) and for the Afghan army hold together. Conversely, scenarios with negative outcomes will be characterised by meddling neighbours, increasing terrorism (e.g. AQ, IS) and fragmented govt.